The latest May 2015 Stats on the Real Estate Market – Making sense of National, Regional and local data.

June 27th, 2015 by Joan Bischoff van Heemskerck

The US Real Estate Market – Nationally – good news!

“Fueled partly by an increase in the share of sales to first-time buyers, existing-home sales increased in May to their highest pace in nearly six years”, according to the National Association of Realtors®. “Led by the Northeast, all major regions experienced sales increases in May” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

This article in RIS Media explores the importance of Millennial buyers in this Real Estate Market.

Good news: May home sales rebounded strongly following April's decline and are now at their highest pace since November 2009 (5.44 million). "Solid sales gains were seen throughout the country in May as more homeowners listed their home for sale and therefore provided greater choices for buyers," he said. "However, overall supply still remains tight, homes are selling fast and price growth in many markets continues to teeter at or near double-digit appreciation. Without solid gains in new home construction, prices will likely stay elevated — even with higher mortgage rates above 4 percent."

On a national level, in other words, absence of newly built housing accounts for much of the low inventory, and Mr. Yun continued: “Total housing inventory2 at the end of May increased 3.2 percent to 2.29 million existing homes available for sale, and is 1.8 percent higher than a year ago (2.25 million). Unsold inventory is at a 5.1-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 5.2 months in April”.

NAR reported that The median existing-home price for all housing types in May was $228,700, which is 7.9 percent above May 2014. This marks the 39th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains.

The percent share of first-time buyers rose to 32 percent in May, up from 30 percent in April and matching the highest share since September 2012. A year ago, first-time buyers represented 27 percent of all buyers.

According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage climbed in May to 3.84 percent from 3.67 percent in April but remained below 4.00 percent for the sixth straight month.

With demand continuing to far exceed supply, properties typically stayed on the market (DOM) for 40 days in May, up from April (39 days) but the third shortest time since NAR began tracking in May 2011. Short sales were on the market the longest at a median of 131 days in May, while foreclosures sold in 56 days and non-distressed homes took 38 days. Forty-five percent of homes sold in May were on the market for less than a month.

All-cash sales were 24 percent of transactions in May for the third straight month and are down considerably from a year ago (32 percent). Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 14 percent of homes in May, unchanged from last month and down from 16 percent in May 2014. Sixty-seven percent of investors paid cash in May.

Distressed sales — foreclosures and short sales — remained at 10 percent for the third consecutive month in May and are below the 11 percent share a year ago. Seven percent of May sales were foreclosures and 3 percent were short sales. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 15 percent below market value in May (20 percent in April), while short sales were also discounted 16 percent (14 percent in April).

Regional Breakdown

May existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 11.3 percent to an annual rate of 690,000, and are now 11.3 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $269,000, which is 4.8 percent higher than May 2014. Again great news from NAR.

The New York State Association of Realtors® published the latest skinny market report video and more  data in a PDF on New York State and Suffolk County Real estate data.  Take away: the NY market is stable, doing especially well in the high end and luxury end of the market.

Million Dollar Listing (Bravo)  mentioned that even in Los Angeles the luxury market is driven by NY City buyers –whose success comes  mostly in  finance ( bankers hedge fund) and Entertainment . New York City in many upper end markets is booming! Of course – this is of a major consequence to the East End markets – and it is good news. If New York City does well – typically the East End does well.

But  All Real Estate is Really Local

While the National and regional good news translates into a much better Real Estate Market on the East End than after the 2007 recession, it is important to distinguish the Local Market date from the National data to get a useful idea of what and how the Real Estate Market is doing on the East End, in the Hamptons and on the North Fork & Shelter Island.

The Hamptons is traditionally very well known as the playground of the rich and famous, tied to Manhattan New York City and also internationally buyers and sellers.  The North Fork is increasingly grabbing attention as a popular Farm to Table life style and vineyard region, with increasing buyer demand. While each market behaves intrinsically different, the entire East End behaves more and more as one market with the characteristics of a Resort and Second Home market. Mostly a “want to buy” rather than a “I have to buy” market.

In such markets, different than National and other regional markets, distressed Real Estate (Short Sales and Foreclosures) plays a much smaller role, even more so East of Riverhead than West.

One of the most important characteristics of the East End market is its seasonality.  Harsh winters can slow certain months down, and create pent up spike demand later. Being able to use the new home in summer stresses the importance of closing before July, creating a spike just before in March-May, and then again as lots of people are out during the summer, with lots of closings 2-3 months later.

Exact listing data on the exact number of the Hamptons listings are harder to come by.TandC Stats Judi Desiderio's East End Market reports

A few companies report on market data. Judi Desiderio (Town and Country Real Estate CEO) so publishes a authoritative quarterly market report for the Hamptons, Shelter Island and North Fork providing clear data and analysis. 2014 year end reports for the Hamptons and North Fork show a robust recovery while first quarter reports for the Hamptons and North Fork reflect seasonality. Such reports show another important difference with national and other regional markets: a median sale of $950K+ in the Hamptons – creating very different market dynamics than lower priced markets. Such higher median prices typically cause listings to take longer to sell than national averages, as mentioned before.

So too on the North Fork:  a very different RE market. It is of crucial importance to know how to read national and regional Real Estate data into the local market conditions.

The North Fork today –contrary to what you typically read- has normal levels of inventory, not much lower than normal. The MLS (which is not as important in the Hamptons) shows around 450-475 listings on the North Fork (seasonally low in winter around 375, highest I saw in 2009 at 520). Agents perception of their own listings, however, with more competing  agents joining their ranks as the economy is improving, maybe misleading and allude to a really non-existing scarcity of available homes for sale and may lead to incorrect pricing of homes. While DOM (Days on Market) improved drastically to 90-120 days for the North Fork – this number is still much higher than national averages.

The East End RE market so behaves very differently from the National and even regional New York State and even Suffolk County markets in some important respects.

When looking at the North Fork markets specifically, it is interesting to watch how different price segments behave – and similar differences in the different price ranges can be observed in Judi Desiderio’s market reports.

Based on Contract signed in 2015 (data from MLSLI in selected North Fork hamlets and towns)– this is a first publication of my findings for this year – to date:

Competitivene Price Ranges North Fork 2015

This graph shows how vastly differently stats for homes in different price ranges behave.

This is what a Realtor ® Pro can do for any consumer buying or selling Real Estate in the East End: make sense of national and regional RE data – and apply them locally – and to a specific buyer’s or seller’s property. An agent properly chosen can help any buyer or seller with reasonable expectations based on facts, and provide an accurate picture of national, regional and local statistics on the Real Estate market. The right agent can analyze all these data based on his or her knowledge, experience, hard work and become a valuable resource for anyone involved in the Real Estate market.

Depending on the different characteristic of a home, or a buyer or seller, the perfect choice for the Realtor ®  to be chosen may so vary. So call any of the agents at Town and Country ReaL Estate to make sense of national, regional and local RE statistics – and price your home right for the market, limit guessing about your expectations, but rather make educated decisions and create the elements for a successful transaction.

Joan Bischoff van Heemskerck,

NY State Lic.Associate RE Broker

Executive Sales Director Town And Country North Fork & Shelter Island

Mobile: 631 948 0234   jbischoff@townandcountryhamptons.com


Fighting Chance Annual Summer Gala

June 5th, 2015 by Judi Desiderio

Town & Country proudly sponsored the 14th Annual Fighting Chance Gala on the Ocean in East Hampton Village, Saturday, May 30th. The setting, the food and the company all came together for a wonderful evening. Sue Davies and Sheila Mahoney Co-Chaired the event…It was a grand success!

 

Fellow board members joined Sue and Sheila

Duncan Darrow

Anthony Brandt

Betty Cowles

Meredith Darrow

Judi A. Desiderio

April Gornik

Renu Hausen, M.D.

Martin Karpeh, M.D.

Rosemarie Slevin Perocchia, R.N.

Dushy Roth

Roman Roth

 

And the Fighting Chance Staff

Karrie Zampini Robinson, LCSW

Bill Discipio, PHD

Margaret Bromberg, LCSW

Wendy Hornick, LSW

Nancy Greenberg

Charlie Grubb

Lisa Pettersson

 

At Fighting Chance we believe that everyone who battles cancer deserves a fighting chance.

 

 

   

Photo Credit: Charlie Grubb

  

Judi A. Desiderio, Chief Executive Officer

JD@1TownandCountry.com                     

631.324.8080 ext. 221


Avenue Magazine Fashion Photo Shoot

June 5th, 2015 by Judi Desiderio

Avenue Magazine had a fashion photo shoot for their July Issue on Wednesday June 3rd at 8 Mitchell Dunes Lane, a Town & Country oceanfront exclusive in prime Amagansett. Eva Saleh and Susan Feinman Senior Account Directors, from Avenue Magazine and their wonderful team, Jessica Lee and Haley Friedlich as well as Claudia Talamas – Stylist, Ryan Plett – Photographer, Juliette Perreux – Hair, Bianna Joelle – Makeup, Sian Osborne – Model, all there helping to make this shoot a success. Special thanks to Mother Nature who was very cooperative providing a day of sunshine glistening off the ocean.

To view full listing details click here: http://www.1townandcountry.com/html/projectDetails.php?innum=28219

Judi A. Desiderio, Chief Executive Officer

JD@1TownandCountry.com                    

631.324.8080 ext. 221


SEAN AVERY’S NEXT MOVE

May 26th, 2015 by Judi Desiderio

Sean Avery, a former New York Ranger, has made the transition from professional athlete to designing homes in the Hamptons. He offers a unique blend of modern design with traditional values. He is delivering a turnkey product including everything from the furniture to the artwork. Something that has never been seen or done before in the Hamptons.

Sean’s partner, Chuck Gallanti has been building homes in the Hamptons for the past 20 years. You can expect only the highest level of craftsmanship, quality, and attention to detail.

Town & Country Associate, Aaron Kaufman of the Southampton branch is representing Sean & Chuck Exclusively. He can be reached at 16 Hampton Road, Southampton Village or at 646.772.0407

Aaron Kaufman

AKaufman@1TownandCountry.com

646.772.0407


Happy 375th Birthday Southampton!

May 22nd, 2015 by Nancy McGann

This will be a year of celebration that many people, both residents and visitors, will be able to enjoy with weekly events scheduled from now to the end of 2015. Activities are planned for all ages and include such things as parades, movies, house tours and more. Visit 27east.com where they will continue to list events that celebrate Southampton’s heritage. 2015 is going to be a wonderful year filled with a variety of events so please continue to check the 27east.com website for more information.

Nancy McGann

NMcGann@1TownandCountry.com 

631.283.5800 ext. 301


Housing Starts Hit Pre-Recession Levels

May 20th, 2015 by Judi Desiderio

Nationally, US home building hit the highest level since November 2007. US Commerce Department said housing starts rose 20.2% in April from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted 1.135 million. This is the greatest percentage increase since February 1991. The issuance of new building permits which gives insight to future construction is up 10%.

 

Housing starts rose 16.7% on single-family units, which represent two-thirds of the market. This shows a wide base to this expanse and the most since January 2008.

 

Condos, Co-Ops and multifamily units are up 27.2%. This is good news for the overall US Economy as construction of homes creates jobs for contractors, electricians, plumbers, masons, pool contractors, landscapers, decorators, furniture, and much more! 

 

 

Judi A. Desiderio, Chief Executive Officer

JD@1TownandCountry.com                     

631.324.8080 ext. 221


Judi honored at Manhattan Media’s Privet Hedge Awards Dinner

May 1st, 2015 by Laura Mott

Judi Desiderio, President and Chief Executive Office of Town & Country Real Estate, was awarded the prestigious award of “Broker’s Broker" at Manhattan Media's Privet Hedge Awards Dinner last night held at Sebonac Golf Club. This was the 2nd annual Privet Hedge Awards which honors excellence in Hamptons real estate. For Judi to be named "Broker’s Broker" is truly a testament to not only her unyielding success in real estate on the East End, but as well her admiration by colleagues and peers. “I was so surprised to receive the “Broker’s Broker” Privet Hedge Award for Excellence in Real Estate. I’m much more comfortable giving the awards, rather than receiving…When I looked around the room I saw many Brokers whom I’ve worked with in my 34 year tenure. So many talented, experienced, smart real estate professionals.. it was truly an honor. Thank you!” stated Judi afterwards.

 

With top producers from every real estate firm in the Hamptons present, the evening was fun-filled, full and enjoyed by all. Special thanks to the Manhattan Media, publisher of Avenue, Avenue on the Beach, Behind The Hedges and Dan’s Papers, for hosting such a special celebration in an equally spectacular venue.

 

 

 

Judi A. Desiderio, Chief Executive Officer

JD@1TownandCountry.com                   

631.324.8080 ext. 221


Get Ready to Rock When STAGES presents BYE BYE BIRDIE!

April 28th, 2015 by Gene Stilwell

“Put On a Happy Face” and take yourselves down to the Bay Street Theatre where Stages, A Children’s Theater Workshop Inc will present the Rock-n-Roll Musical Bye Bye Birdie!

 

Before Hairspray or Grease… there was Bye Bye Birdie!! This ultimate Rock –n –Roll musical filled with teenage fun and great songs has something for the entire family. It’s the 1960’s and heartthrob singing sensation Conrad Birdie, loosely based on Elvis Presley, is going into the army. His manger Albert and his secretary Rosie have cooked up a publicity stunt to give him a big send off!  He will bestow ‘One last Kiss” to one lucky fan, Kim MacAfee, on the Ed Sullivan show before he leaves. With a town full of colorful characters and crazed, screaming teenagers, Bye Bye Birdie brings us all back to a simpler time before cell phones, and computers!

 

This highly entertaining Tony award winning musical features a book by Michael Stewart and music by Charles Strouse and lyrics by Lee Adams.

 

The cast consists of over 30 local actors age 8-18 directed and choreographed by Helene Leonard.

 

Stages will present Bye Bye Birdie at The Bay Street Theatre in Sag Harbor Saturday May 2 at 2:00 and 7:30 and Sunday May 3 at 2:00. All tickets are only $15 and can be purchased at The Bay Street Theatre Box office or charge by phone at 631-725-9500.

 

Bye Bye Birdie finishes out Stages 20 year Birthday Celebration and it’s not to be missed!  So grab your “steady “and go see Bye Bye Birdie!  “You’ve got a lot a livin’ to do!!”

 

 

Gene Stilwell

GStilwell@1TownandCountry.com

631.324.8080 ext. 218


East Hampton Airport Rules Stir Trouble

April 22nd, 2015 by Judi Desiderio

A great debate resulted in East Hampton Town Board approving curfews from 11pm to 7am on ALL flights and 8pm to 9am on “noisy” aircraft. Additionally, the limit of one weekly round trip for each individual aircraft created more controversy. While no one will argue that aircraft traffic has increased dramatically and better air traffic patterns are necessary, homeowners who purchase on or near the main road and rail line will tell you activity around their homes have increased comparatively. It is apparent all forms of transportation are operating at maximum, or close to maximum capacity.

 

A balance between commerce and conservation once again are laid on the table for all to weigh in on. Everyone has an opinion as to that balance, but the decisions are made by those voted into office. These decisions were made, and now the commerce side of the equation believes the town has over stepped its authority. There was just a lawsuit filed in US District Court against the Town of East Hampton to block these restrictions on grounds they violate Federal Aviation Administration guidelines. The suit quotes the 1990 Airport Noise and Capacity Act and the US Constitution’s supremacy and interstate commerce clauses.

 

I believe when we are able to look in the rearview mirror at this one we will have wished we could have worked together to avoid this path to the best resolution.

 

What are your thoughts on the matter? What do you believe the final outcome will be? How much money will this cost tax payers? How many years will we be in litigation?

 

Judi A. Desiderio, Chief Executive Officer

JD@1TownandCountry.com                   

631.324.8080 ext. 221


TOWN & COUNTRY NORTH FORK 1ST QUARTER 2015 HOME SALES REPORT

April 20th, 2015 by Judi Desiderio

It may have snowed 7 weekends in the first 3 months of 2015 but it certainly didn’t slow down the tempo of the North Fork Home Sales Market!

 

Three of the 4 markets monitored by TOWN & COUNTRY experienced increases in the Number of Homes Sales. In fact, 2 of the North Fork markets, Jamesport (which includes Aquebogue, Baiting Hollow and South Jamesport) and Mattituck (which includes Laurel and Cutchogue) both experienced significant increases of +45.5% and +43%, respectively.

 

Jamesport (which includes Aquebogue, Baiting Hollow and South Jamesport) had a blow away quarter statistically in all 3 criteria monitored by  TOWN & COUNTRY  with all prices ranges in the black. In fact, the Jamesport markets were the lead hamlets with +45.5%, +77%, and +17% for the Number of Homes Sales, Total Home Sales Volume and Median Home Sales Price respectively – all 3 record stats!

 

Surprisingly Orient (which includes East Marion and Greenport) took a back seat with a 33% drop in the Number of Homes Sales and 28% decline in the Total Home Sales Volume. The Median Home Sales Price remained relatively stable at $435,000 in 2015 from $427,500 in 2014 1st Quarter.

 

Looking at All North Fork Markets Combined and we see healthy gains of nearly 10% in the Number of Homes Sales Price as well as a 5.4% increase in Median Home Sales Price. There was a slight dip of 2.55% in the Total Home Sales Volume – which was most likely swayed by 2 less sales in the $2-$3.49M price category.

 

All told, I’m sticking with my prediction that the North Fork Markets are going to enjoy 2015 broadly!

 

To view the complete report visit 1TownandCountry.com/Reports.

 

Judi A. Desiderio, Chief Executive Officer

JD@1TownandCountry.com                    

631.324.8080 ext. 221